Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLSpencer Strider
Sample4045.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
Model 21.1% Market 24.1% Gap -3.0pp
BetMGM 315 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.4
F 77.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 80.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 68.4% Market 76.6% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.7
F 21.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 23.7% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.7%
98
Exit velocity92.3
93
Hard-hit%48.8%
87
xBA0.343
68
xSLG0.713
94
xwOBA0.406
98
BB%13.0%
87
Bat speed69.8
53
K%14.3%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · LF
19
Arm Strength86.8 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
44
Range Runs0.4 · LF
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
46
Sprint Speed25.8 · LF
16
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.326 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionPositive · 0.013
Opposing pitcherSpencer Strider
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)