Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample4074.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 14.4
V 15.0
Model 19.0% Market 16.2% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.0
F 68.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.0% Market 83.3% Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 33.2
F 30.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 33.2% Market -- Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
57 -36 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
79
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.477
38
xwOBA0.343
81 -18 vs proj
BB%10.8%
74
Bat speed74.7
97
K%12.8%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 1B
91
Range Runs3.6 · 1B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 1B
37
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
93
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
20
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7%
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions67.6%
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.348 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.002
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)