Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample3975.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.2% Market 16.7% Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 47.1
F 44.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 48.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 47.1% Market 45.7% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 34.2
F 31.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 34.2% Market -- Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
55 -36 vs proj
Exit velocity90.9
83
Hard-hit%46.4%
79
xBA0.344
70
xSLG0.483
41
xwOBA0.359
84
BB%11.9%
82
Bat speed74.8
97
K%10.2%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
80
Range Runs1.5 · 1B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 1B
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
95
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
20
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3%
82
Correct Decisions66.9%
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.310
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.348 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-12
Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)