Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Jeremy Peña

HOU · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample2391.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 14.4
V 12.3
Model 19.6% Market 11.6% Gap +7.6pp
DraftKings 735 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 71.6
F 72.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 83.6% Market 84.6% Gap +13.0pp
BetMGM -550 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
19 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity87.4
40
Hard-hit%38.7%
48
xBA0.358
83
xSLG0.512
51
xwOBA0.342
80 +22 vs proj
BB%6.9%
29
Bat speed70.6
65
K%16.1%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
86
Arm Strength89.2 · SS
71
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs-0.6 · SS
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.2 · SS
90
Bolts11.0 · SS
70
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
74
Sprint Speed29.1 · SS
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)