Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample688.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 14.4
V 10.2
Model 14.7% Market 9.1% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.1
F 60.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 64.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 54.1% Market 72.6% Gap +9.9pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 18.3
F 16.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.3% Market -- Gap +11.3pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
21
Hard-hit%29.8%
15 -18 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.418
18
xwOBA0.301
44
BB%6.4%
23 -23 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
9
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
85
Arm Strength95.0 · RF
65
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
34
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.319
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.079
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)