Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTOR vs NYYCam Schlittler
Sample600.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 14.6% Market 9.1% Gap +5.2pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 23.8
F 22.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 25.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 23.8% Market 25.6% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.2
F 13.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 15.2% Market -- Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
4 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity86.4
26
Hard-hit%32.7%
23
xBA0.346
72
xSLG0.438
26
xwOBA0.317
56
BB%6.0%
20 -24 vs proj
Bat speed66.0
11
K%14.3%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
55
Arm Strength92.4 · RF
52
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs0.9 · RF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
41
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.095
Opposing pitcherCam Schlittler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)