Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Alec Bohm

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample3045.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 13.8
V 16.4
Model 19.6% Market 11.1% Gap +8.2pp
DraftKings 775 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.7
F 68.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 72.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 64.7% Market 83.0% Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.9
F 23.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.9% Market -- Gap +8.9pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
30
Exit velocity90.2
77
Hard-hit%41.1%
60
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.437
25
xwOBA0.297
40 -33 vs proj
BB%6.5%
24
Bat speed69.4
46
K%15.0%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.2 · 3B
16
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-4.8 · 3B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions69.8%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.307
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)