Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Harrison Bader

SF · Hitter
IL60 · 9 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs LADBlake Snell
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.0% Market 64.9% Gap +11.2pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
57
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%41.1%
63
xBA0.316
48
xSLG0.540
63
xwOBA0.272
21
BB%4.4%
10
Bat speed70.7
67
K%31.6%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · CF
46
Arm Strength93.1 · CF
46
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs0.1 · CF
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · CF
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions59.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.021
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-27
Palantir 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21810 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Valinor 16122 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d stable
Palantir 1972 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1468 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Palantir 10537 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.041 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1097 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)