Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample1985.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 14.2
V 12.4
Model 19.5% Market 12.3% Gap +6.8pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.5
F 62.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 61.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 68.5% Market 69.7% Gap +9.2pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
72
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%46.5%
81
xBA0.341
70
xSLG0.599
76
xwOBA0.331
73 +20 vs proj
BB%10.4%
72 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
43
K%25.9%
32 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.6 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
31
Framing Runs-10.0 · C
1
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
40
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.441
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)