Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Ryan Mountcastle

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 29

tracking · 7 Neutral

MatchupBAL vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti

Sample--career MLB AB

PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 12 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only

Tonight's props · all markets for this player

Home Run --

Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5

P 62.4

F 64.2 EXPERIMENTAL

V 62.8 EXPERIMENTAL

FULL

Model 71.0% Market 71.8% Gap +9.4pp

BetMGM -255 tracking Open board

Hits --

Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --

RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B

54 Regression applied

Range Runs-0.2 · 1B

Small sample

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed26.2 · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+ · percentile strip

Avoids Bad ChasesST 53.6%

Small sample

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%

Small sample

Correct Decisions66.7%

Small sample

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample

small sample

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276

Small sample

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists FastballwOBA 0.338

Small sample

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366

Small sample

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90

Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup

Projected range0.292 to 0.365

RegressionNo current flag

Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti

EnvironmentNeutral

Lane calibration receipts

Lane Health 2026-07-19

Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling

Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling

Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building

Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)