Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Austin Riley

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TEXMacKenzie Gore
Sample3492.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 17.0
Model 20.3% Market 16.7% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.4
F 69.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 66.4% Market 81.0% Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 25.1
F 25.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 25.1% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
75
Exit velocity90.3
78
Hard-hit%42.3%
65 -25 vs proj
xBA0.300
26
xSLG0.538
60
xwOBA0.288
29 -52 vs proj
BB%8.4%
48
Bat speed73.9
93
K%28.5%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
27
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
56
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
12
Range Runs-2.4 · 3B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 3B
87
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
93
Sprint Speed27.8 · 3B
61
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherMacKenzie Gore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)