Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample2994.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.5
F 12.3
V 12.0
Model 7.5% Market 7.7% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.7
F 68.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 56.7% Market 81.5% Gap +12.2pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 33.7
F 32.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 33.7% Market -- Gap +6.6pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity86.1
27
Hard-hit%28.4%
12
xBA0.312
39
xSLG0.395
11
xwOBA0.318
63
BB%8.7%
51 +31 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
19
K%8.0%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
53
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
33
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs6.2 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.1 · 2B
95
SB Success Rate92.9% · 2B
84
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
18
Correct Decisions63.6%
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.237
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)