Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Daulton Varsho

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample2433.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 14.7
Model 18.1% Market 16.7% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F 63.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 62.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.1% Market 71.0% Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 18.9
F 20.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.9% Market -- Gap +7.6pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
48
Exit velocity85.8
24
Hard-hit%39.5%
51
xBA0.308
34
xSLG0.458
30
xwOBA0.294
37
BB%8.5%
49
Bat speed70.9
70
K%19.5%
68 +45 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
27
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
20
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs3.3 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · CF
39
Sprint Speed27.3 · CF
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1%
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
78
Correct Decisions65.0%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)