Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs MIAMax Meyer
Sample2554.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 13.8
V 12.8
Model 17.5% Market 12.6% Gap +4.5pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.5
F 68.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 62.5% Market 80.6% Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 29.8
F 29.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 29.8% Market -- Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity90.4
80
Hard-hit%43.5%
69 -18 vs proj
xBA0.325
55
xSLG0.522
55
xwOBA0.337
76
BB%8.1%
44 -28 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
72
K%13.6%
91 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
14
Catcher Throwing4.0 · C
100
Framing Runs-5.1 · C
5
Pop Time1.9 · C
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · C
4
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
12
SB Success Rate33.3% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.0%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.383
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherMax Meyer
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)