Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample2457.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 19.4% Market 12.6% Gap +6.4pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.8
F 78.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 78.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 62.8% Market 76.8% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 27.7
F 27.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 27.7% Market -- Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
70
Exit velocity90.3
77
Hard-hit%43.3%
66 -21 vs proj
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.513
51
xwOBA0.335
71
BB%8.0%
41 -29 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
74
K%13.6%
91 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
28
Catcher Throwing3.1 · C
100
Framing Runs-1.9 · C
23
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · C
6
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
76
Correct Decisions68.0%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)