Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Jesús Sánchez

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IL10 · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 14.4
V 12.9
Model 18.1% Market 12.3% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.7
F 63.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 62.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 72.8% Market 73.7% Gap +10.0pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
83
Exit velocity91.0
86
Hard-hit%47.5%
84
xBA0.365
87
xSLG0.604
78
xwOBA0.335
74
BB%4.8%
12 -32 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%22.3%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · RF
24
Arm Strength97.4 · RF
85
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-5.7 · RF
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · RF
18
Sprint Speed26.4 · RF
25
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)