Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample4069.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.6
F 14.4
V 17.3
Model 21.3% Market 28.4% Gap +4.6pp
DraftKings 240 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.3
F 71.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 84.5% Market 85.5% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -590 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.6%
98
Exit velocity93.6
97
Hard-hit%52.6%
95
xBA0.406
97
xSLG0.802
98
xwOBA0.416
99
BB%14.6%
96
Bat speed73.0
89
K%23.3%
44
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
61
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.0%
86
K%29.4%
91
Whiff%29.5%
90
xwOBA allowed0.257
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
71
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4%
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
81
Correct Decisions67.8%
67
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Slider Stuff+111
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)