Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs CWSSean Burke
Sample3973.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 34 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.7
F 26.0
V 26.0
Model 24.5% Market 29.3% Gap +2.6pp
DraftKings 230 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 79.0
F 84.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 84.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 79.0% Market 82.7% Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 32.6
F 31.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 32.6% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
95
Exit velocity93.6
96
Hard-hit%53.3%
96
xBA0.415
98
xSLG0.772
98
xwOBA0.418
100
BB%15.2%
96
Bat speed72.9
88
K%23.0%
42
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
53 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.4%
94 +36 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
93
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
73
K%29.7%
91
Whiff%30.0%
89
xwOBA allowed0.256
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · DH
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
35
Sprint Speed27.5 · DH
55
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.3%
82
Correct Decisions67.9%
66
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Slider Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+99
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)