Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Lane Thomas

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDGriffin Canning
Sample2258.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 18.1
Model 18.1% Market 12.6% Gap +5.1pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 49.0
F 57.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 57.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 49.0% Market 66.7% Gap +8.4pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.1
F 15.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 16.1% Market -- Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
43
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%41.0%
58
xBA0.341
69
xSLG0.513
51
xwOBA0.327
69 +24 vs proj
BB%13.2%
89 +53 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%22.6%
49 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.7 · CF
98
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-4.7 · CF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · CF
85
Bolts12.0 · CF
72
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.243 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherGriffin Canning
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)