Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample4898.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 20.3
Model 19.7% Market 25.5% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 280 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.4
F 61.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 61.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 65.4% Market 73.0% Gap +10.0pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.6
F 14.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 15.6% Market -- Gap +12.2pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
96
Exit velocity93.4
96
Hard-hit%53.7%
97
xBA0.416
98
xSLG0.883
99
xwOBA0.376
95
BB%13.8%
93
Bat speed74.2
95
K%34.5%
4 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.3 · LF
31 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · DH
5
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8%
72
Correct Decisions69.3%
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.374 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.436
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.436
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)