Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs CHCJavier Assad
Sample4419.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 18.6% Market 15.4% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 525 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48 -30 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
49
Hard-hit%37.9%
43 -41 vs proj
xBA0.291
21
xSLG0.446
28
xwOBA0.296
37 -33 vs proj
BB%10.0%
67
Bat speed73.9
93
K%19.7%
63 +28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
76
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.1 · 3B
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 3B
29
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
69
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
52
Correct Decisions70.2%
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.080
Opposing pitcherJavier Assad
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)