Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Luis Arraez

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs SEABryan Woo
Sample3610.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.2
F 12.3
V 12.9
Model 7.3% Market 7.7% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.1
F 66.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 80.3% Market 81.3% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -435 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.5%
2
Exit velocity86.0
25
Hard-hit%22.2%
4
xBA0.301
27
xSLG0.393
11
xwOBA0.308
50 -16 vs proj
BB%5.9%
20
Bat speed61.6
1
K%3.9%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
88
Arm Strength88.0 · 2B
65
Outs Above Avg10.0 · 2B
99
Range Runs7.5 · 2B
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 2B
87
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
93
Sprint Speed26.7 · 2B
32
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
20
Correct Decisions66.7%
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.067
Opposing pitcherBryan Woo
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)