Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Josh Naylor

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 4 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFLogan Webb
Sample2946.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 14.0
Model 15.9% Market 16.4% Gap -1.0pp
DraftKings 490 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.5
F 69.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 80.8% Market 81.8% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -450 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
39
Hard-hit%37.0%
42 -17 vs proj
xBA0.315
43
xSLG0.461
32
xwOBA0.321
65
BB%7.4%
36
Bat speed68.2
29
K%12.6%
95
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate93.8% · 1B
86
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
17
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
69
Correct Decisions63.1%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.366
RegressionPositive · 0.002
Opposing pitcherLogan Webb
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)