Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Josh Naylor

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs WSHZack Littell
Sample2847.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 23.0% Market 16.2% Gap +6.2pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.0
F 80.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 80.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 65.0% Market 78.1% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.1
F 29.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 29.1% Market -- Gap +9.3pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
37
Hard-hit%37.3%
40 -16 vs proj
xBA0.325
52
xSLG0.478
39
xwOBA0.327
65
BB%7.5%
36
Bat speed68.2
32
K%13.3%
92
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
11
Range Runs-1.7 · 1B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · 1B
5
SB Success Rate90.0% · 1B
84
Sprint Speed24.4 · 1B
2
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.6%
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
66
Correct Decisions62.6%
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.279 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherZack Littell
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)