Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 30

IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly

MatchupSF vs SEABryan Woo

Sample4779.0career MLB AB

PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only

Tonight's props · all markets for this player

Home Run 0.5

P 14.9

F 13.4

V 15.1

Model 18.3% Market 20.8% Gap -2.5pp

BetMGM 380 tracking Open board

Total Bases 0.5

P 66.1

F 64.9 EXPERIMENTAL

V 64.5 EXPERIMENTAL

FULL

Model 76.0% Market 77.0% Gap +11.0pp

BetMGM -335 tracking Open board

Hits --

Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --

RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.7%

Exit velocity92.2

Hard-hit%50.8%

xBA0.335

xSLG0.662

xwOBA0.327

69 -21 vs proj

BB%9.2%

56 -29 vs proj

Bat speed70.4

K%27.2%

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B

Range Runs-0.9 · 1B

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B

Bolts1.0 · 1B

Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B

Mithrandir+ · percentile strip

Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9%

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%

Correct Decisions67.6%

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · small sample

small sample

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261

Small sample

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.389 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists FastballwOBA 0.325

Small sample

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368

Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup

Projected range0.307 to 0.398

RegressionNegative · -0.024

Opposing pitcherBryan Woo

EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly

Lane calibration receipts

Lane Health 2026-07-18

Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling

Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable

Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling

Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building

Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)