Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs CHCBen Brown
Sample4683.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.0
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 21.0% Market 19.8% Gap +0.4pp
FanDuel 385 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 43.5
F 42.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 41.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 43.5% Market 42.5% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
70 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity91.8
90
Hard-hit%50.3%
91
xBA0.325
52
xSLG0.604
74
xwOBA0.292
33 -54 vs proj
BB%7.3%
33 -50 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
63
K%30.4%
13 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
11
Range Runs-1.1 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · 1B
14
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
18
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.2%
43
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
51
Correct Decisions67.3%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.378 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherBen Brown
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)