Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample2210.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 14.2
V 15.0
Model 18.2% Market 16.7% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.1
F 60.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 59.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 66.6% Market 67.7% Gap +8.7pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
64
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%43.8%
70
xBA0.308
33
xSLG0.585
73
xwOBA0.309
51
BB%10.3%
70
Bat speed71.0
71
K%28.1%
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
49
Arm Strength92.2 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
6
Range Runs-2.6 · RF
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.275 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)