Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

Jake Bauers

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample1879.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 24.4
F 22.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 26.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 24.4% Market 26.3% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 480 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +12.1pp
FanDuel 2500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
50 -20 vs proj
Barrel%9.9%
93 +33 vs proj
Bat speed75.0
98
Exit velocity92.7
94
Hard-hit%54.9%
97 +30 vs proj
K%22.1%
49 +32 vs proj
xBA0.352
76
xSLG0.640
83
xwOBA0.348
79 +31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 1B
9
Arm Strength92.6 · 1B
87
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
3
Range Runs-4.7 · 1B
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 1B
67
SB Success Rate80.0% · 1B
49
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions70.2% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.256 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.094
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)