Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample4127.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.3
F 13.8
V 16.6
Model 21.6% Market 22.4% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.0
F 63.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.0% Market 77.3% Gap +10.9pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.8
F 18.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 20.8% Market -- Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
87
Exit velocity94.0
98
Hard-hit%55.6%
99 +15 vs proj
xBA0.380
92
xSLG0.721
95
xwOBA0.377
95
BB%11.8%
83 +25 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
90
K%24.7%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.6 · 1B
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 1B
12
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
63
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)