Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs SDRandy Vásquez
Sample4032.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 20.7% Market 23.0% Gap -2.3pp
BetMGM 335 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 44.2
F 41.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 45.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 44.2% Market 43.4% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.9
F 22.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.9% Market -- Gap +7.3pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
87
Exit velocity95.1
99
Hard-hit%56.7%
99 +18 vs proj
xBA0.366
85
xSLG0.703
93
xwOBA0.371
89
BB%9.8%
64
Bat speed73.0
89
K%22.7%
44
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
88
Range Runs2.7 · 1B
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 1B
18
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
69
Correct Decisions68.7%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.014
Opposing pitcherRandy Vásquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)