Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Taylor Ward

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample2854.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.3
F 14.4
V 15.9
Model 21.0% Market 17.2% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F 64.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.9% Market 74.4% Gap +10.3pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.1
F 19.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 19.1% Market -- Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.4%
25 -49 vs proj
Exit velocity89.4
66
Hard-hit%39.5%
51 -20 vs proj
xBA0.340
68
xSLG0.512
51
xwOBA0.348
83
BB%17.0%
99 +32 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%20.6%
61 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
16
Arm Strength92.3 · LF
46
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.0 · LF
1
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
51
SB Success Rate25.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 81.8%
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5%
11
Correct Decisions68.5%
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.367
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)