Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Carlos Correa

HOU · Hitter

IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral

MatchupHOU vs BALTrevor Rogers

Sample--career MLB AB

PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only

Tonight's props · all markets for this player

Home Run 0.5

P 14.9

F 14.4

V 11.1

Model 18.9% Market 11.5% Gap +7.0pp

DraftKings 740 tracking Open board

Total Bases 0.5

P 66.9

F 67.5 EXPERIMENTAL

V 66.5 EXPERIMENTAL

FULL

Model 77.1% Market 78.0% Gap +11.2pp

BetMGM -355 tracking Open board

Hits --

Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --

RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.7%

Exit velocity89.1

Hard-hit%40.2%

55 -19 vs proj

xBA0.367

xSLG0.583

xwOBA0.364

91 +18 vs proj

BB%13.4%

91 +46 vs proj

Bat speed71.9

K%18.1%

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.0 · SS

Arm Strength91.8 · SS

Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS

Range Runs0.8 · SS

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed27.2 · SS

SB Success Rate100.0% · SS

Small sample

Mithrandir+ · percentile strip

Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1%

Small sample

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%

Small sample

Correct Decisions62.5%

Small sample

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample

small sample

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279

Small sample

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists FastballwOBA 0.341

Small sample

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361

Small sample

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97

Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup

Projected range--

RegressionNegative · -0.015

Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers

EnvironmentNeutral

Lane calibration receipts

Lane Health 2026-07-18

Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling

Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable

Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling

Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building

Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)