Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample5048.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.8
V 11.4
Model 16.4% Market 13.2% Gap +2.8pp
DraftKings 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.3
F 62.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 57.3% Market 74.7% Gap +10.3pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.3
F 16.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 19.3% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
71
Hard-hit%43.6%
69
xBA0.291
21
xSLG0.525
55
xwOBA0.299
42 -30 vs proj
BB%9.9%
66 +19 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%24.0%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
73
Arm Strength85.6 · SS
43
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
98
Range Runs7.1 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · SS
95
Bolts1.0 · SS
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
93
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7%
92
Correct Decisions72.1%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)