Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Carson Kelly

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample2123.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 24.1
F 21.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 25.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 24.1% Market 25.8% Gap +2.2pp
DraftKings 300 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
50 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
57
Hard-hit%41.7%
59 +21 vs proj
xBA0.312
37
xSLG0.466
34
xwOBA0.317
56 +24 vs proj
BB%9.3%
57
Bat speed69.8
52
K%16.5%
82 +28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
58
Catcher Throwing-1.4 · C
5
Framing Runs-2.2 · C
15
Pop Time1.9 · C
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
14
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.2%
Small sample
Mithrandir Stuff+61
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.337
RegressionNegative · -0.070
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)