Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample4963.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.8
Model 17.3% Market 14.6% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.3
F 66.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 66.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 62.3% Market 78.5% Gap +11.3pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.5
F 22.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 23.5% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
28
Exit velocity88.3
50
Hard-hit%38.0%
46
xBA0.290
21
xSLG0.434
23
xwOBA0.310
53 -16 vs proj
BB%11.1%
77 +22 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
K%15.4%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.0 · 3B
14
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs3.3 · 3B
82
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · 3B
37
Sprint Speed26.0 · 3B
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.1%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0%
24
Correct Decisions68.9%
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)