Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs STLDustin May
Sample4910.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.0
F 14.2
V 13.2
Model 19.1% Market 21.1% Gap -2.0pp
BetMGM 375 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.5
F 73.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 69.5% Market 83.5% Gap +12.8pp
FanDuel -135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.5
F 32.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 30.5% Market -- Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
88
Exit velocity90.7
83
Hard-hit%44.9%
75
xBA0.348
77
xSLG0.589
74
xwOBA0.364
90
BB%7.2%
33 -35 vs proj
Bat speed73.2
91
K%14.0%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
71
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
83
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
85
Range Runs2.2 · 2B
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · 2B
56
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
Sprint Speed26.6 · 2B
29
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
44
Correct Decisions65.0%
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.430
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.016
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)