Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 1 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs CINNick Lodolo
Sample4792.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.0% Market 20.8% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 365 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.4
F 85.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 83.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 70.4% Market 80.2% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel -140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.5
F 32.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 30.5% Market -- Gap +6.6pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.4%
85
Exit velocity90.3
75
Hard-hit%43.7%
67
xBA0.359
82
xSLG0.606
76
xwOBA0.368
89
BB%7.3%
33 -35 vs proj
Bat speed72.8
87
K%15.0%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
76
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
84
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
92
Range Runs2.9 · 2B
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
45
Sprint Speed26.3 · 2B
24
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
40
Correct Decisions64.5%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.417
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.030
Opposing pitcherNick Lodolo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-12
Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)