Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-16

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample6239.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.1
F 15.0
V 15.2
Model 22.2% Market 18.5% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.6
F 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.6% Market 81.7% Gap +12.2pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.9
F 26.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 27.9% Market -- Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
61 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity92.0
92
Hard-hit%49.6%
90 +18 vs proj
xBA0.314
41
xSLG0.541
61
xwOBA0.342
80
BB%8.9%
53
Bat speed71.0
72
K%16.2%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · SS
99
Arm Strength83.5 · SS
28
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
68
Range Runs0.6 · SS
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-16
Palantir 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3783 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)