Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Jorge Polanco

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYM vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample4121.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 14.4
V 15.0
Model 18.7% Market 15.9% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 505 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.4
F 64.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 73.8% Market 74.7% Gap +10.2pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.0%
22 -45 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
21
Hard-hit%28.6%
12 -48 vs proj
xBA0.258
7
xSLG0.364
5
xwOBA0.250
8 -65 vs proj
BB%7.9%
42
Bat speed67.8
26
K%15.8%
84 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
55 Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.3 · DH
23
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)