Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs MIAMax Meyer
Sample6355.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.1
F 16.0
V 13.9
Model 19.6% Market 16.4% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F 72.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 64.1% Market 82.3% Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.1
F 32.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 30.1% Market -- Gap +6.6pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
42
Hard-hit%40.4%
57 -23 vs proj
xBA0.328
59
xSLG0.541
61
xwOBA0.296
39 -37 vs proj
BB%9.8%
65
Bat speed70.9
70
K%28.6%
20 -35 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
63 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · DH
34
Sprint Speed27.2 · DH
44
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherMax Meyer
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)