Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

J.t. Realmuto

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample5281.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.3
F 63.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 56.3% Market 75.3% Gap +10.6pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.9
F 18.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 19.9% Market -- Gap +5.1pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
24 -40 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
63
Hard-hit%38.7%
48 -19 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.491
43
xwOBA0.313
57
BB%7.7%
39 +16 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
74
K%20.4%
63 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
64
Catcher Throwing1.7 · C
89
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
49
Pop Time1.9 · C
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · C
73
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.321
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)