Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Willson Contreras

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 34
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs TEXJack Leiter
Sample3925.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.5
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 18.5% Market 15.2% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 535 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 38.7
F 64.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 62.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 38.7% Market 60.2% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.4
F 26.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.4% Market -- Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
89
Exit velocity89.6
64
Hard-hit%44.1%
69
xBA0.382
93
xSLG0.738
96
xwOBA0.388
96
BB%9.2%
56
Bat speed74.2
96
K%24.8%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
80
Range Runs0.7 · 1B
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
19
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
43
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
61
Correct Decisions65.7%
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.418
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.393
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherJack Leiter
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)