Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Nolan Arenado

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs STLDustin May
Sample7119.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.2
F 62.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 66.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 55.2% Market 75.3% Gap +10.4pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.9
F 18.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 20.9% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48 +22 vs proj
Exit velocity85.2
20
Hard-hit%33.1%
25
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.469
35
xwOBA0.294
37
BB%8.3%
47 +19 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
44
K%20.5%
62 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.6 · 3B
30
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
89
Range Runs2.8 · 3B
79
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 3B
17
Sprint Speed25.3 · 3B
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
18
Correct Decisions63.2%
22
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)