Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample6780.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 14.2
V 20.4
Model 20.5% Market 18.0% Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 435 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.9
F 69.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 68.9% Market 81.1% Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.9
F 26.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 25.9% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
82
Exit velocity90.3
77
Hard-hit%46.4%
81
xBA0.366
87
xSLG0.676
91
xwOBA0.391
98
BB%14.5%
96
Bat speed72.7
85
K%20.2%
63 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 1B
3
Range Runs-5.0 · 1B
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate50.0% · 1B
3
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.4%
92
Correct Decisions66.5%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.349 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)