Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Mike Trout

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs DETTarik Skubal
Sample6254.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.8
F 14.4
V 13.4
Model 17.4% Market 19.8% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 405 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.7
F 58.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 57.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 66.1% Market 67.2% Gap +8.5pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.5%
98 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
82
Hard-hit%49.5%
90
xBA0.379
92
xSLG0.806
98
xwOBA0.409
99 +17 vs proj
BB%18.8%
100
Bat speed73.2
91
K%24.7%
37 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
66
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
53
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · CF
6
Range Runs-2.6 · CF
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · CF
43
Bolts5.0 · CF
56
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions69.8%
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)