Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Freddie Freeman

LAD · Hitter · bats L · age 37
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample8473.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.2
F 14.4
V 14.4
Model 21.6% Market 15.6% Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 73.0
F 71.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 85.4% Market 86.4% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -635 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
82
Exit velocity90.6
81
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.359
83
xSLG0.617
81
xwOBA0.383
97
BB%11.7%
82 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
41
K%15.9%
84
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
22
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.1%
93
Correct Decisions72.9%
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.404 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.413
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)