What changed for Rafael Marchán.
From 2025 to 2026, Rafael Marchán's Launch Angle moved from 11.1° to 23.6°. Here's everything else the data sees that changed.
Something has changed for Rafael Marchán, now 27, between 2025 and 2026. We went through what the data can actually measure, including contact, plate approach, swing shape, and the results they produce, to separate the signal from the noise. The clearest gain: Launch Angle moved from 11.1° to 23.6°, which now sits in the 99th percentile leaguewide. It hasn't been all one direction. BB% has slipped from 7.4% to 3.9%, but the trade has largely worked so far.
The Results
On the bottom-line production (what it all adds up to), this is the soft spot. Marchán has gone the wrong way on OPS (0.596→0.313), wOBA (0.316→0.203), and xwOBA (0.261→0.212), which is worth watching even if the headline numbers hold up.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xwOBA | 0.261 | 0.212 | ▼ -0.049 | 0th |
| wOBA | 0.316 | 0.203 | ▼ -0.113 | 0th |
| xSLG | 0.349 | 0.304 | ▼ -0.045 | 0th |
| OPS | 0.596 | 0.313 | ▼ -0.283 | 0th |
The biggest move is OPS, down from 0.596 to 0.313 (-0.283). This is where things have gone the wrong way.
Contact Quality
On the quality of contact (how hard and how flush he's hitting the ball), it's a genuine mix. Marchán has gained ground on Sweet-Spot% (28.9%→32.1%), while slipping on Exit Velo (85.0 mph→83.1 mph), Hard-Hit% (23.7%→20.5%), and Barrel% (2.2%→1.9%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.0 mph | 83.1 mph | ▼ -1.9 | 4th |
| Barrel% | 2.2% | 1.9% | ▼ -0.3 pts | 8th |
| Hard-Hit% | 23.7% | 20.5% | ▼ -3.2 pts | 1th |
| Sweet-Spot% | 28.9% | 32.1% | ▲ +3.2 pts | 15th |
The biggest move is Exit Velo, down from 85.0 mph to 83.1 mph (-1.9).
Plate Approach
On his approach at the plate (what he swings at and how often he misses), it's a genuine mix. Marchán has gained ground on Whiff% (20.3%→16.8%), while slipping on Chase% (24.9%→30.6%), K% (14.1%→18.4%), and BB% (7.4%→3.9%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase% | 24.9% | 30.6% | ▼ +5.7 pts | 43th |
| Whiff% | 20.3% | 16.8% | ▲ -3.5 pts | 80th |
| K% | 14.1% | 18.4% | ▼ +4.4 pts | 67th |
| BB% | 7.4% | 3.9% | ▼ -3.5 pts | 3th |
The biggest move is Chase%, up from 24.9% to 30.6% (+5.7 pts).
Swing & Batted-Ball Shape
On his swing and batted-ball shape (the mechanical fingerprint behind the changes above), it's a genuine mix. Marchán has gained ground on Launch Angle (11.1°→23.6°), Bat Speed (63.6 mph→64.6 mph), and Ground-Ball% (55.7%→35.9%), while slipping on Swing Length (7.4 ft→7.5 ft), Oppo% (21.6%→17.9%), and Pull% (53.6%→50.0%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch Angle | 11.1° | 23.6° | ▲ +12.5 | 99th |
| Pull% | 53.6% | 50.0% | ▼ -3.6 pts | 73th |
| Oppo% | 21.6% | 17.9% | ▼ -3.7 pts | 2th |
| Ground-Ball% | 55.7% | 35.9% | ▲ -19.8 pts | 83th |
| Bat Speed (2024+) | 63.6 mph | 64.6 mph | ▲ +1.0 | 5th |
| Swing Length (2024+) | 7.4 ft | 7.5 ft | ▼ +0.1 | 28th |
The biggest move is Launch Angle, up from 11.1° to 23.6° (+12.5).
The takeaway
Bottom line: between 2025 and 2026, the broad picture is a step back, and it's showing in the results. More of Marchán's markers are sliding than improving. It's worth re-checking as the sample grows, but the direction is already readable in the numbers.
How to read this
- Sample sizes are modest (2025 135 PA, 2026 103 PA), so read the magnitude of these changes with some caution.
- This compares what the data can measure (contact, approach, swing and batted-ball shape). Stance, hand position, and leg-kick changes are not in the public data and are not claimed here.