What changed for Graham Pauley.
From 2025 to 2026, Graham Pauley's Launch Angle moved from 16.7° to 20.6°. Here's everything else the data sees that changed.
Something has changed for Graham Pauley, now 26, between 2025 and 2026. We went through what the data can actually measure, including contact, plate approach, swing shape, and the results they produce, to separate the signal from the noise. The clearest gain: Launch Angle moved from 16.7° to 20.6°, which now sits in the 94th percentile leaguewide. It hasn't been all one direction. Barrel% has slipped from 4.2% to 2.0%, but the trade has largely worked so far.
The Results
On the bottom-line production (what it all adds up to), this is the soft spot. Pauley has gone the wrong way on OPS (0.684→0.462), xSLG (0.442→0.301), and xwOBA (0.299→0.190), which is worth watching even if the headline numbers hold up.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.190 | ▼ -0.109 | 0th |
| wOBA | 0.318 | 0.250 | ▼ -0.068 | 0th |
| xSLG | 0.442 | 0.301 | ▼ -0.141 | 0th |
| OPS | 0.684 | 0.462 | ▼ -0.222 | 0th |
The biggest move is OPS, down from 0.684 to 0.462 (-0.222). This is where things have gone the wrong way.
Contact Quality
On the quality of contact (how hard and how flush he's hitting the ball), this is the soft spot. Pauley has gone the wrong way on Exit Velo (86.4 mph→82.3 mph), Hard-Hit% (35.9%→17.4%), and Sweet-Spot% (38.3%→30.4%), which is worth watching even if the headline numbers hold up.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.4 mph | 82.3 mph | ▼ -4.1 | 2th |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 2.0% | ▼ -2.2 pts | 5th |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.9% | 17.4% | ▼ -18.5 pts | 2th |
| Sweet-Spot% | 38.3% | 30.4% | ▼ -7.8 pts | 4th |
The biggest move is Exit Velo, down from 86.4 mph to 82.3 mph (-4.1). This is where things have gone the wrong way.
Plate Approach
On his approach at the plate (what he swings at and how often he misses), it's a genuine mix. Pauley has gained ground on Whiff% (24.0%→19.6%) and Chase% (28.9%→24.5%), while slipping on K% (19.4%→23.8%) and BB% (11.0%→6.9%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase% | 28.9% | 24.5% | ▲ -4.3 pts | 73th |
| Whiff% | 24.0% | 19.6% | ▲ -4.4 pts | 61th |
| K% | 19.4% | 23.8% | ▼ +4.4 pts | 31th |
| BB% | 11.0% | 6.9% | ▼ -4.1 pts | 13th |
The biggest move is Whiff%, down from 24.0% to 19.6% (-4.4 pts).
Swing & Batted-Ball Shape
On his swing and batted-ball shape (the mechanical fingerprint behind the changes above), it's a genuine mix. Pauley has gained ground on Launch Angle (16.7°→20.6°), Bat Speed (67.4 mph→69.8 mph), and Pull% (46.1%→53.6%), while slipping on Swing Length (7.0 ft→7.3 ft) and Oppo% (25.8%→15.9%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch Angle | 16.7° | 20.6° | ▲ +3.9 | 94th |
| Pull% | 46.1% | 53.6% | ▲ +7.5 pts | 89th |
| Oppo% | 25.8% | 15.9% | ▼ -9.8 pts | 1th |
| Ground-Ball% | 40.6% | 39.1% | ▲ -1.5 pts | 61th |
| Bat Speed (2024+) | 67.4 mph | 69.8 mph | ▲ +2.5 | 34th |
| Swing Length (2024+) | 7.0 ft | 7.3 ft | ▼ +0.3 | 56th |
The biggest move is Launch Angle, up from 16.7° to 20.6° (+3.9).
The takeaway
Bottom line: between 2025 and 2026, the broad picture is a step back, and it's showing in the results. More of Pauley's markers are sliding than improving. It's worth re-checking as the sample grows, but the direction is already readable in the numbers.
How to read this
- Sample sizes are modest (2025 191 PA, 2026 101 PA), so read the magnitude of these changes with some caution.
- This compares what the data can measure (contact, approach, swing and batted-ball shape). Stance, hand position, and leg-kick changes are not in the public data and are not claimed here.