Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago White Sox Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago White Sox

Hagen Smith

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 3", 235 lb · Age 23

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago White Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2026331.29181028.0410.96
1 Seasons331.29181028.0410.96
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
80
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
80
Arsenal4 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.40
ERA current pace1.09
ERA rolling p503.32
Observed weight33%
ERA
1.93 2.59 3.32 4.05 4.71
FIP
2.33 3.04 3.83 4.62 5.34
K%
14.8% 18.7% 23.1% 27.4% 31.4%
BB%
8.1% 9.7% 11.6% 13.5% 15.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.93
96
ERA1.09
99
BB%14.5%
5 -23 vs proj
K%39.3%
100 +46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.243
98 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.9%
99 +57 vs proj
Fastball velo94.0
42
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
82
Whiff%35.6%
99 +34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+105
87
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+101
44
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith, Hagen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.243 2026-09-12: 0.2612026-09-13: 0.2532026-09-14: 0.2532026-09-18: 0.2482026-09-19: 0.2452026-09-20: 0.2452026-09-21: 0.2502026-09-22: 0.2502026-09-23: 0.2502026-09-24: 0.2432026-09-25: 0.2432026-09-26: 0.243 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith, Hagen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 36%36%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Hagen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.1%Slider: 29.9%Cutter: 18.6%Changeup: 2.4% FF49% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 49%SL 30%FC 19%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Hagen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSlider: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.1 mphSL83 mphCutter: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 88.4 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.6 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.4% 128 102 limited sample
SL 32.4% 84 101 limited sample
FC 15.8% 41 105 limited sample
CH 2.3% 6 117 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age23
Height6' 3"
Weight235 lb
Debut2026-08-09
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-3.41
K% Δ+0.166

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.220
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.243

Smith’s wOBA-against sits at 0.220, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.243 — a gap of 0.023, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 30 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching22026-09-10Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.7% K | 4.36 ERAProjection