Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Cade Smith

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 230 lb · Age 27

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024611.91740175.11030.90
2025852.937601673.21041.00
2026212.844202844.1631.11
3 Seasons1672.51192045193.12700.99
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal3 metrics
85
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.33
ERA current pace2.84
ERA rolling p503.11
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.77 2.40 3.11 3.81 4.45
FIP
1.64 2.20 2.83 3.46 4.03
K%
28.0% 30.5% 33.2% 36.0% 38.4%
BB%
4.5% 5.5% 6.7% 7.9% 8.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.10
82
ERA2.84
80
BB%6.1%
87 +22 vs proj
K%33.0%
97
xwOBA allowed0.286
76
Barrel allowed10.1%
20 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
85
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
25
Whiff%31.4%
95
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+109
92
Mithrandir Stuff+108
93
Slider Stuff+104
68
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Smith, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.286 2026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2892026-07-10: 0.2862026-07-11: 0.2832026-07-12: 0.2782026-07-13: 0.2782026-07-14: 0.2852026-07-15: 0.2852026-07-16: 0.2862026-07-17: 0.2862026-07-18: 0.286 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 61%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Smith, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 61.4%Split-Finger: 25.7%Sweeper: 12.9% FF61% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 61%FS 26%ST 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Smith, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 61% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphSplit-Finger: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 86.4 mphFS86 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.2 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 81.7% 325 109 qualified
SL 18.3% 73 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lb
Debut2024-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.59
K% Δ+0.037

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.312
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.286

Smith’s wOBA-against sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.286 — a gap of 0.025, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 48 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202629.3% K | 3.45 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ DET0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 @ STL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ STL0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs KC0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs CHC1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP